Week 1 Picks & Bets

During the year i am going to provide you peoples with my "bets" of the week, I am not going to be betting these games, but i am going to do my bets with a running total of fake money so if you did follow my advice by the end of the year you can see how much money you would have won. I am a man of the people. I am going to compare my picks against Bill Simmons, and all of these picks will be against the spread. Going by the spreads in the espn pick em' pool.

Favorite is in CAPS

Thursday

Tennessee @ PITTSBURGH -5.5 - Ever since the NFL has had this thursday night game for the champ first one being 2003 pats vs raiders, the home team defending champ has won, and i havent looked it up but i think they all covered too, there is just too much emotions and stuff flowing through the stadium to take the road dog. Tennessee stomped on the towel last year which could cause bad blood. This should a great physical game, this has low scoring written all over it. Big Ben will have to throw the ball as they wont be able to run on the titans.

Pittsburgh - 5.5

Sunday

Miami @ ATLANTA -4.5 Very tough game to call here, I think the home field will be what i ultimatly chose though wont like it that much. Atlanta has to run the ball well to win and i think they do.

Atlanta -4.5

Denver @ CINCINNATI - 3.5 Denver never travels well to the east in the beginning of the year, I think the bengals are getting denver at a perfect time, there will be a lot of buzz this year for the bengals, i dont really know why but i think they pull this one off.

Cincinnati -3.5

MINNESOTA -3.5 @ Cleveland Brett vs. Mangini doenst seem to be getting any hype probably because favre is too busy trying to iron his wranglers to notice. This is the perfect team for minnesota to open up against, they should be able to run the ball all over cleveland.

Minnesota - 3.5

Jacksonville @ INDIANAPOLIS - 6.5 Indy opened up terrible last year and probably learned their lesson, but jacksonville seems to have their number, no bob sanders means a big day for my boy MJD. I think the colts pull off the victory but its going to be close

Jacksonville + 6.5

Detroit @ NEW ORLEANS - 11.5 This seems to be everyone's lock of the day, almost to the point where i dont like it anymore because everyone likes it so much, but in the end its going to be a track meet, with stafford starting his first game i dont see them covering, barring a backdoor cover by a garbage TD i see saints rolling.

Saints - 11.5

DALLAS - 3.5 @ Tampa Bay - This is scaring me that i am picking all favorites. But i really want to pick tampa here but i am having trouble convincing myself of doing so. I can see this being a low scoring game. But tampa just fired their off cord. Vegas gives home teams 3 points so vegas is saying dallas is .5 better than TB, i think they can win by 5.

Dallas -3.5

Philadelphia @ CAROLINA -.5 Probably the toughest game of the week to pick, Jonathan Stewart is probably not going to be 100%, philly is getting a lot of buzz around them, I hate both coaches. I think carolina comes off slow to start and philly pulls it out.

Philly + .5

Kansas City @ BALTIMORE - 8.5 I love baltimore to win but there is a spread so the only problem is i know KC wont score much but can baltimore score enough to cover. I think they do and this game ends up being 23-3 or something along those lines.

Baltimore - 8.5

NY Jets @ HOUSTON - 4.5 Sanchez in his first start combined with the jets D vs the good/great O of the texans makes this game a very intriguing matchup, I love the fact that houston is home, there is just too much fire power to not win by 5

Houston - 4.5

Washington @ NY GIANTS -6.5 I think this is too high, these division games usually dont end in blowouts, I think the giants will win but a late score from washington prevents a cover from the g-men

Washington + 6.5

SF 49ers @ ARIZONA -6.5 I have no idea which arizona team will show up to play this game, the fact that is at arizona helps, wonder if they can shake off the superbowl loss. Shaun Hill can put up points as well. i see the 49ers covering

SF +6.5

St. Louis @ SEATTLE - 7.5 I love seattle in this game, I think they will throw a lot this year and they can throw all over the rams

Seattle - 7.5

Chicago @ GREEN BAY -3.5 Great classic game here, very tough to call, last year the bears went into the high powered indy and smoked them. Can they catch lightning again this year in week 1 i dont think so.

Green Bay - 3.5

Monday
Buffalo @ NEW ENGLAND - 10.5 I gotta count on a bill belichick FU td to cover this, I dont see buffalo staying with the pats in this game, if there is good weather this has all the makings of a blowout.

Pats -10.5

SAN DIEGO -6.5 @ Oakland, oakland seems to be on national tv every week 1 and seemed to get smoked every time, san diego puts up a ton of points here and wins by 24

San Diego -6.5


BETS

Ok those are my picks, that doesnt mean i would bet them all now to the fun part of this, my "fake money" bets, If you follow these chances are by the end of the year you will be up money

$100 2 team tease

Seattle -1.5
Baltimore -2.5

100 pays 90.91

$50 2 team parlay

Minnesota -3.5 San Diego -6.5

50 pays 130

4 team money line parlay (espn doesnt show money lines so sportsbook.com was used)

Seattle -400
Baltimore -800
Pats -700
Houston -230

100 pays 130.59

Those are my bets for week one, follow if you want but you'll be kicking yourself if you dont. by week 6 you'll all see i would be up much that you wil be asking me to bet for you.

Live the dream

peace out.